Bitcoin (BTC) is reaching US$32,000, owing to a significant verdict in the Securities and Exchange Commission's continuing action against Ripple. Bitcoin is up 4% in the last 24 hours as of this writing. If Bitcoin breaks beyond US$32,000, it will be the first time since May 2022 that the dominant cryptocurrency has done so. Bitcoin has risen sharply in the last day as a federal court ruled in the long-running SEC dispute against Ripple Labs over the selling of its XRP token.
The SEC accused Ripple in late 2020 of marketing XRP as an unregistered security on public cryptocurrency exchanges. Following years of litigation, a federal court ruled on June 13 that trading XRP on public crypto exchanges did not constitute an offer of securities under federal law. The judge also decided mainly in favor of the SEC, concluding that off-exchange sales of XRP to sophisticated investors like hedge funds constituted unregistered securities transactions. The decisions were issued early in the trial, with a final decision likely soon. The SEC's interpretation of the Howey test for digital assets was the foundation for this violation.
The main issue for investors today is whether this is just another indicator that Bitcoin has reached its bottom or if the retreat is a dead cat bounce, in which prices momentarily rise despite a longer-term bearish trend, only to continue their downward decline later. While the rebound has been encouraging, the reality is that we are in uncharted terrain in terms of many elements, including the geopolitical situation, economic data, crypto laws, and the Fed's connection to interest rates. Anybody familiar with the business understands that forecasting the short-term price movement of digital assets is relatively easy, even in the best circumstances. This is especially true in this financial climate.
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