Toncoin Price Analysis: Can New Telegram's Stars Digital Currency Push TON to Reach $10?

Toncoin (TON) is currently priced at $6.33, reflecting a drop of 0.23% over the last 24 hours as its market cap stands at $21.9 billion. Despite the slight increase, the sentiment among Toncoin holders is mixed. According to recent data from IntoTheBlock, 21% of TON holders are at a break-even point, having purchased their tokens at the current price. This scenario presents a critical juncture for these investors, potentially dictating their future actions in the market.

Furthermore, a significant segment of the Toncoin community, accounting for 29% of all holders, has acquired the token within the last month. This influx of new investors corresponds with a 17% rise in Toncoin's value during the same period, culminating in gains for those who entered the market at the right time. However, the price has faced setbacks, including a 2.89% drop over the past week, attributed to rejection at a critical technical pattern potentially as the double top. 

As of now, the total number of Toncoin holders has reached approximately over  20.3K, a notable increase from under 10K at the beginning of March. This growth in the investor base aligns with the overall upward trajectory of the token's price since the start of the year.

However, the trading volume has dropped, as seen on the santiment chart. Currently, data from Coinmarketcap shows it has dropped by 3% to $130.8 million.

Telegram announced the upcoming launch of a new digital currency named Stars, set to debut on June 12. Stars will be integrated into Telegram’s platform for bot and mini-application payments. Although Telegram has not confirmed the direct involvement of Toncoin, the existing relationship between the messaging giant and the cryptocurrency fuels speculation about possible synergies.

This speculation is further heightened by a recent notification from the Telegram Marketing channel, which highlighted potential conflicts with Apple's App Store policies regarding payment mechanisms. Users will soon have the option to purchase Stars directly through the App Store and Google Play, likely incurring a standard service fee of 30%. Developers will be able to convert these earnings back into TON, suggesting a tangible utility that could enhance Toncoin's demand and value.

TON Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, Toncoin has demonstrated significant volatility and resilience. Starting from January 3rd, the token's value surged from $1.87 to a peak of $7.67 by April 11, marking a staggering 310% increase. This rally was propelled by substantial buying from whales and several key developments within the Toncoin ecosystem.

Post-April 11, Toncoin underwent a correction, descending by 39% to a low of $4.60. This level served as a strong double support zone, marked by horizontal support and an ascending trendline. Despite rallying to test a high of $7.4 on May 13th, Toncoin faced rejection and has since been trading bearishly.

Currently, the token is at the 50-day moving average support. Should it break below the ascending trendline, the next critical support is anticipated at the double-top neckline around $4.59.