Bitcoin price prediction: BTC retraces from $69,000

Bitcoin’s price dropped from $70,000 on June 12 after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the current range of 5.25%-5.50%.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did what the majority of economic analysts had predicted and held the Federal funds rates at the current levels.

In a June 11 statement, the central bank said that “recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace” and that “job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.”

The Fed added,

“Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective."

Regarding the possibility of rate cuts in 2024, the FOMC said that it “seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.”

Updating its economic projections, the Fed’s expectation for the fed funds rate at year-end 2024 is now 5.1%, up from 4.6% three months ago. This means the central bank is now anticipating just one 25-basis-point rate cut this year versus 75 previously. The 2025 year-end fed funds expectation is now 4.1%, suggesting 100 basis points in rate cuts next year.

Earlier on June 11, the U.S. CPI print for May came in lower than expected. The news sent crypto prices sharply higher as traders ratcheted upward their expectations for the commencement of Fed rate cuts.

However, the Fed’s hawkish tone has put a stop to those rallies, with Bitcoin dropping from a high of $70,000 on June 12, falling 4.5% to today’s intraday low of $66,966.

How low can Bitcoin price go?

The June 11 crypto market flash crash saw BTC drop out of an ascending parallel channel losing the support provided both by the channel’s lower trendline and the 50-day EMA.

At the time of publication, the price was fighting to hold above the 100-day EMA, currently at $67,043. Losing this level would be detrimental to bulls, who would see their holdings lose more value as BTC retraces toward the psychological level at $65,000 and later the 200-day EMA at $64,000.

If it falls below that, Bitcoin’s price could move toward the $60,000 demand zone or lower toward the pessimistic target of the prevailing chart pattern at $56,700. Such a move would represent a 16% drop from the current price.

This negative outlook is validated by the downward trend of the relative strength index (RSI). The price strength at 47 suggests that the market conditions favor the upside.

On the upside, BTC bulls must push the price above the 50-day EMA at $68,441 to avoid further losses. Key levels to watch higher than that are the lower boundary of the rising channel at $70,000 and, later, the optimistic target of the channel at $75,000.