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BTC, currently priced at $54,230.78, saw a 2.63% decrease over the last 24 hours and an 8.34% drop in the last 7 days as of writing.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that non-farm payrolls only grew by 142,000, falling short of the anticipated 160,000. While the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, wage growth surged by 0.7% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year. This unexpected data triggered a series of market reactions, with Bitcoin briefly soaring past $56,000 before plummeting to $52,530 and then rebounding.
The dollar index (DXY) slid to 100, weakening the U.S. currency and potentially contributing to Bitcoin's temporary rally. Market analysts now estimate a 57% chance of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis point rate cut, a move that could significantly impact both traditional and crypto markets.
The volatility caused by these macroeconomic factors led to nearly $50 million in liquidations, highlighting the risks associated with leveraged trading in the crypto space. Despite the turbulence, Bitcoin maintains its position as the top cryptocurrency by market cap, currently valued at $1.1 trillion.
Bitcoin's price action has been following a bearish trend since reaching a recent high of $65K on August 25th. The cryptocurrency is currently trading within a bullish flag pattern that has been forming since March 2023. This consolidation phase is generally considered a bullish continuation pattern, suggesting potential for upward movement in the long term.
The recent price dip tested the bullish flag support at $52K as analyzed in our previous report. If this level fails to hold, we could see further drops to previous support levels around $48,000 or lower. However, the weekly and 3-day charts show a significant order block acting as support, which could potentially mark the low of this move, backed up with the bullish flag support.
On key indicators, Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL)has been negative over the past week, indicating a bearish phase as investors sell at a loss. Negative NRPL often reflects reduced confidence in future price movements. Also, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator helps determine whether the market is overvalued or undervalued. Recent analysis shows a concerning pattern similar to the bearish reversal seen in the 2021 cycle.
The active address indicator metric reflects investor activity on the Bitcoin network. When combined with moving averages, it has recently formed a death cross pattern, raising concerns about Bitcoin's ability to stage another rally under current conditions.
Short- and long-term moving averages applied to various indicators have also revealed bearish signals, including the aforementioned death cross.
Despite these bearish signals, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Predictions of Bitcoin reaching $100K in Q4 continue to circulate, though you should approach such forecasts with caution given the current market conditions.
