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As of June 04, 2024, Ethereum (ETHUSD) is demonstrating a pattern of fluctuation around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). The price movement has been fairly volatile, yet it is currently in a position that hints at potential bullish momentum. The stochastic oscillator is approaching a positive overlap, suggesting that buying pressure might increase, potentially driving the price higher in the short term.
The next significant price target for Ethereum is projected to be US$4096.85. This bullish outlook remains valid as long as the price does not break below the crucial support level of US$3641.85. If Ethereum manages to stay above this support, the bullish trend is expected to continue.
Support: US$3680.00
Resistance: US$3950.00
On-Chain Data Insights
Accumulation and Distribution Patterns
Recent on-chain data from Santiment highlights intriguing trends in Ethereum's accumulation and distribution among different holder categories. Since May 20, there has been a notable increase in the Ether supply held by entities with a balance of 10 million to 100 million ETH. This cohort has increased their holdings by approximately 0.5%. This accumulation period aligns with rumors regarding the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reconsidering its stance on spot Ether ETFs.
The accumulation continued robustly following the official approval of spot Ether ETFs by the SEC on May 23, contributing to a significant 19.25% price increase in ETH/USD. This suggests that large holders (whales) are positioning themselves in anticipation of further price gains.
Conversely, entities holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH have reduced their holdings sharply during this price rally. This behavior suggests profit-taking by medium-scale holders. Despite this, overall Ether reserves across all crypto exchanges have declined recently. This trend indicates a broader sentiment of holding rather than trading, as more investors are withdrawing their ETH from exchanges. This holding behavior supports the potential for Ethereum’s price to continue its upward trajectory.
The approval of spot Ether ETFs has been a significant catalyst for recent Ethereum price movements. Cryptocurrency Market analysts foresee a strong possibility of U.S. spot Ether ETFs launching by late June. This optimism is bolstered by BlackRock’s decision to update its Form S-1 for the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) with the SEC.
Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, commented positively on this development, suggesting that other similar filings could follow soon. He anticipates that spot Ether ETFs could capture 10-15% of the inflows that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted shortly after their launch. This could significantly boost Ethereum’s market dynamics, potentially driving the price above the US$4,000 mark.
The current Ethereum price analysis indicates a promising bullish trend, supported by technical indicators and on-chain data. The key levels to watch are US$3680.00 for support and US$3950.00 for resistance. The price target remains at US$4096.85, contingent on Ethereum maintaining its position above US$3641.85.
Investor sentiment, bolstered by the recent SEC approval of spot Ether ETFs and continued accumulation by large holders, suggests that Ethereum has the potential to rally further. The launch of spot Ether ETFs could serve as a significant catalyst for additional price gains in the upcoming period.
Overall, Ethereum’s market outlook remains positive, with a strong foundation for continued growth in the near term.
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