Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH At Risk As Staker Sell-Off Concerns Emerge

Ethereum (ETH) has been oscillating around the $2,100 level for the past four days as the Shapella upgrade excitement fades away. There are emergent signals of stakers positioning themselves for sell-action, as revealed by on-chain metrics. Traders are now concerned about the ability of the buyers to defend the immediate support level at $2,000.

Ethereum Stakers Are Ready To Offload

Following an initial positive reaction to the successful Ethereum Shapella upgrade, the second largest altcoin by market capitalization now faces an uncertain short-term future. According to data from Glassnode, the supply of ETH deposited on exchanges has increased by more than 100,000 Ether since April 10. This is an indication that holders are seeking to sell their tokens, which can happen faster and easier when it is on the trading platforms.

The chart below shows that Ethereum balance on exchanges increased by 0.6% from 18.09 million ETH on April 13 (a day after stETH withdrawal was enabled) to 18.20 million ETH on April 17.

Note that when crypto assets are held on exchanges, it makes them readily available for trading, and with Ethereum stakers pulling out their coins from the Beacon Chain, they could accumulate overhead pressure. Such an outcome could provoke a potential pullback in the next few days.

Additionally, an evaluation of the aggregate order books from different exchanges shows that the number of Ether available for sale at the moment is far more than the demand at the current market rates. On-chain data by IntoTheBlock reveals that there are open sell-orders for 6 million ETH around the +/-30% price boundaries. However, as it stands, buyers have only placed orders for around 5.2 million ETH.

When exchange order books record more sell orders than buy orders, it usually means there is higher supply than demand for the asset.

Therefore, the influx of  Ethereum coins on exchanges, a sign of selling momentum accumulated possibly due to newly unstaked coins, and unbalanced exchange order books could all play out, triggering a sell-off in Ethereum price.

Ethereum Price At Risk Of 9% Losses

ETH was trading at $2,101, up 0.34% on the day, with a 24-hour trading volume of $9.23 billion. The largest altcoin was trading within a significant supply stretching from $1,900 to $2,150. If the price volatility remains the same, the Ethereum price could remain within this area for some time.

This means, a daily candlestick close below the $2,000 psychological level could see ETH drop toward the $1,900 defense level. This would represent a 9.4% drop from the current price. This could be where Ethereum's downside is capped for the short-term.

However, incase of immense selling, Ethereum could drop below $1,900 to revisit the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,768, the 100-day SMA at $1,678, and the 200-day SMA at $1,486.

ETH/USD Daily Chart

On the other hand, Ethereum was trading above these SMAs, suggesting that it sat on relatively strong support that could absorb any selling pressure. In addition, the RSI was pointing upward and was positioned in the positive region at 70, reinforcing the buyers' grip on the price.

As such, a daily candlestick close above the upper limit of the supply zone at $2,150 would confirm a bullish breakout for ETH. Such a move would bolster Ethereum toward $2,500 representing a 19.5% uptick from the current levels.