Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Hit $40,000 in 2023?

Bitcoin is on track to close the second consecutive week in the green as the price continues to retest the resolve of investors. A "degree of panic and negative sentiment has taken hold in the near term" as investors who bought BTC over the last three months see their aggregate cost basis fail as market support, according to data from Glassnode.

As a result, there is an overall sense of caution among Bitcoin traders and analysts, with many predicting a test of lower levels still to come. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reinforces these views as market "sentiments and emotions" remain fairly bearish according to data from Alternative.

Nonetheless, for smallholders, Bitcoin remains an attractive investment as they accumulate more in anticipation of good returns in the long run. Sentiments analysts unveiled a trend where non-whale wallets, which are defined as "addresses with under 100 $BTC", have soared to all-time highs, "now owning 41.1% of the available supply."

This points to massive accumulation, which is a bullish sign for the holders of the big crypto.

Can Bitcoin Climb 50% Before the End of the Year?

BTC is trading at $26,622, down 1.67% over the last 24 hours and up 0.5% over the last seven days. On the medium timeframes, Bitcoin looks bearish as it trades at 13% and 3% down over the last three months and six months respectively.

On the longer timeframes, the pioneer cryptocurrency is optimistically bullish. It is up 61% year-to-date (YTD) and 44% over the last 12 months.

For the last five weeks, the price has still successfully managed to stay above $26,000, and even when it dips below this level, it quickly bounces back up.

This suggests the bearish wave is trying to break the support at $26k. The support is holding for now, but if it breaks the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will drop to revisit the $23,500 to $24,500 demand zone. Note that this is a strong defense zone as it is where the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Suptrend's green line lie.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart

Meanwhile, the most vigorous resistance limiting Bitcoin from heading further up is at $28,000, close to the 200-day SMA. Although BTC did manage to breach it a couple of times in March and June, even going to $32,000 on one occasion, thus making a YTD high.

Note that the month of September and Q3 2023 will end in just over a week. Historically, this is the worst period for crypto prices, while Q4 is usually much more bullish.

While there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself, market participants are looking forward to entering the final quarter. Not only that, but the most optimistic predictions believe that BTC might recover to $40,000 before the year ends. This would mark a 50% uptick from the current price.