Stocks

State Bank of India (SBI) Share Price: Forecast, History, Chart and Target

Mwangi Enos

State Bank of India (SBI), arguably India’s most prestigious and oldest banking organization, is today setting the pace in an interesting revolution. SBI has a strong balance sheet, a vast branch network, and a strong market capitalization that transformed it from the pure public sector bank into a very active competitor with private and global banks. 

With the largest network of its own branches and drawing from its rich experience of rise, SBI is now leading the route-map to expansion in new frontier areas of Pension Funds, General Insurance, Custodial Services, Private Equity, Mobile Banking etc. 

The latter three have tremendous growth opportunities and established SBI as a trendsetter in offering modern Banking solutions. The services that the bank offers include NRI services and Personal Banking, Corporate, Rural, SME and Treasury services that reflect its ability towards fulfilling the need of a variety of services for the customers.

Share Price Overview

State Bank of India closed at INR 820.20. This was down by 0.27% as of the  trading session on 31st October 2024. 

Alongside the share price, this report here shows a strong company profile with key metrics indicating its market performance and investor outlook:

  • Market Cap: $7.32 trillion. A substantial market cap that places it among the largest companies globally.

  • Beta (5Y Monthly): 0.80, showing lower volatility compared to the overall market, which can appeal to risk-averse investors.

  • P/E Ratio (TTM): 10.78, suggesting a potentially undervalued stock relative to its earnings (a lower P/E can be attractive if the company’s growth prospects are solid).

  • EPS (TTM): 76.08. This indicates strong earnings per share. 

  • Earnings Date: November 8th 2024 is when we have  an upcoming event that could impact the stock price based on whether earnings meet or exceed market expectations.

  • Forward Dividend & Yield: $13.70 with a 1.67% yield. This shows a commitment to return value to shareholders through dividends, appealing to income-focused investors.

  • 1-Year Target Estimate: $900.10, which could imply potential upside if current trading levels are lower than this target.

These metrics combined indicate a well-established, potentially undervalued company with solid profitability and a stable return profile. The earnings date might also provide a key short-term price catalyst.

Financial Highlights

Most Recent Quarter: June 30, 2024

Profitability  

  • Profit Margin: 20.45%  

  • Operating Margin (TTM): 34.77%

Management Effectiveness  

  • Return on Assets (TTM): 1.10%  

  • Return on Equity (TTM): 16.65%

Income Statement  

  • Revenue (TTM): ₹3.32 trillion  

  • Revenue Per Share (TTM): ₹381.14  

  • Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY): 6.80%  

  • Net Income Available to Common (TTM): ₹678.73 billion  

  • Diluted EPS (TTM): ₹76.08  

  • Quarterly Earnings Growth (YoY): 4.30%

Balance Sheet  

  • Total Cash (MRQ): ₹3.03 trillion  

  • Total Cash Per Share (MRQ): ₹339.89  

  • Total Debt (MRQ): ₹6.27 trillion  

  • Book Value Per Share (MRQ): ₹491.96  

These highlights reflect SBI's strong profitability, management effectiveness, and robust cash reserves, underscoring its resilience and growth trajectory in the current fiscal year.

Performance Analysis of SBI Compared to S&P BSE SENSEX 

State Bank of India has shown great returns in various time frames. It has significantly outperformed its benchmark the S&P BSE SENSEX. 

  • Year-to-Date (YTD) Return: SBIN.NS has delivered a return of +29.89%, which is almost three times the SENSEX return of +9.90%. This indicates strong performance by SBI within this calendar year.

  • 1-Year Return: It posted a +47.55% return over the last year, outperforming the SENSEX +23.83%. This gain shows that SBI recent performance has been solid relative to the benchmark.

  • 3-Year Return: SBI achieved a +71.95% return, doubling the SENSEX return of +33.86%. This shows the consistent growth for SBI over the medium term.

  • 5-Year Return: SBIN saw a remarkable +200.59% increase over five years, while the SENSEX gained +98.22%. This long-term return shows SBI strong performance and resilience over time.

This data suggests that SBI has outperformed the SENSEX across multiple periods, making it an attractive investment choice for long-term growth.

Earnings Performance

The data highlights SBI Earnings Per Share (EPS) performance over recent quarters, showing consistent outperformance relative to analyst estimates

  • Q3 2023: SBI reported an EPS of +2.64 beating estimates.

  • Q4 2023: The EPS increased to +4.50, exceeding expectations again.

  • Q1 2024: The EPS saw a jump to +8.29 maintaining its trend of outperforming estimates.

  • Q2 2024 (Upcoming): The anticipated report date is November 8th, with analysts estimating an EPS of +14.90. SBI actual EPS for the year so far is +23.19, demonstrating a strong track record in surpassing EPS expectations.

This consistent EPS outperformance highlights SBIN.NS’s robust financial performance, making it a potentially attractive investment based on earnings growth.

Technical analysis

On the weekly chart, SBIN has been bullish overall, reaching a high of 912 recorded in June. Since then, the price has been bearish but has found support at an ascending trendline multiple times. This week, the price has been bullish and is likely to close on a positive note.

In the next few weeks, the price is expected to continue trading bullish and might revisit the 912 high before the end of the year. This would align with the 1-Year Target Estimate of $900.10, which could imply potential upside if current trading levels are lower than this target.

Price Prediction

YearMinimum Price TargetMaximum Price Target
2023820880
2024850900
2025880950
20269001,000
20279201,050
20289501,100
20299801,150
2030$1,000$1,200

Conclusion

State Bank of India stands as a powerful and dynamic institution with robust growth potential, bolstered by strategic diversification and consistent financial performance. With significant market capitalization, stable dividend yields, and a track record of outperforming benchmark indices like the S&P BSE SENSEX, SBI demonstrates resilience and long-term value for investors. The bank's expansion into non-traditional financial services and its strong profitability metrics indicate a forward-looking approach, poised to benefit from India's economic growth. 

Based on technical analysis and future price projections, SBI’s stock shows potential upside, with a 1-Year Target Estimate of $900.10 suggesting possible gains for investors if current trading levels are lower than this target. Upcoming catalysts, including earnings announcements and steady revenue growth, reinforce SBI’s positioning as a stable and profitable investment choice in the Indian banking sector.

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