Toncoin (TON), the native crypto of the Toncoin blockchain, has been on a remarkable upward trajectory since the start of 2023. From January 3rd to April 11th, TON surged an impressive 310%, skyrocketing from $1.87 to an all-time high of $7.67. This rally was fueled by a confluence of positive factors, including whale accumulation, listings on major exchanges like HashKey, endorsements from prominent venture capital firms like Pantera Capital, and growing adoption within the Telegram ecosystem.

However, since reaching its all-time high on April 11th, Toncoin experienced a heavy correction, dropping 39% to find support at the $4.6 level. This support zone was strengthened by a horizontal support level and an ascending trendline, leading to a temporary rejection of further downside momentum. After that, TON rallied once again, testing the recent highs around $7.40 on May 13th, but failed to record a fresh all-time high. Since the rejection, the price has dropped 13% in the last 7 days and 2.59% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $6.34 with a market cap of over $22 billion and a $189 million 24-hour volume.

TON Technical Analysis

Toncoin's price action has formed a potential double-top pattern, a bearish reversal signal that typically suggests a trend reversal. The recent correction has seen TON close with four consecutive bearish daily candles, indicating growing selling pressure. Analysts anticipate that TON could drop further to fill the fair value gap between $5.90 and $6.30, potentially even testing the ascending trendline below this zone. In the event of continued selling pressure, the double-top neckline support at $4.59 could be a crucial level to watch.

Several on-chain and derivatives metrics point towards a potential continuation of the bearish trend for Toncoin. The open interest-weighted funding rate, which provides a more accurate picture of market sentiment, has shown a substantial negative rate on the 8-hour chart, signaling bearish sentiment and a preference for selling.

Furthermore, the Toncoin Futures Open Interest, which had been increasing steadily since late February until reaching an all-time high of over $236 million, has dropped significantly, currently sitting at $192 million. This decline suggests decreased adoption and development within the TON ecosystem, further supported by a simultaneous drop in trading volume.

The Total Value Locked (TVL) metric, which measures the total value of digital assets locked or staked in a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform or decentralized application (dApp), has also seen a recent decline for Toncoin. After reaching an all-time high of $270 million on May 12th, the TVL has dropped to $210 million, suggesting that the platform may not be gearing up for a rebound anytime soon.

Key Levels To Watch

Based on these bearish indicators and the potential double-top pattern, traders are closely watching the ascending trendline and the double-top neckline at $4.59 for confirmations of further downside or a potential rebound. If the ascending trendline or neckline support holds, it could pave the way for a recovery and a potential flip of the recent all-time highs. However, a break below this level could signal a more substantial correction for Toncoin in the near term.