Bitcoin’s 30-day average funding rates for perpetual swaps slid below zero, a condition that has rarely occurred and aligned with a bottom in prices, according to K33 Research.
The largest crypto's price (Bitcoin) was nearing $58,000 late in the US trading session, up 1.7% in the past 24 hours and higher by nearly 10% from last Friday's low. Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) each advanced 1.5% over the past day.
Toncoin (TON), Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) and Internet Computer (ICP) were the biggest gainers among altcoin majors, rising 5%-8%. The broad-market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index rose 1.3% to 1,835 with 16 out of its 20 constituents advancing during the day.
Crypto is unlikely to feature in tonight's US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris but the jarring contrast of the two parties' approach on digital assets-what their leadership would mean for prices-makes the event important all the same.
Uncertainty about the election would in any case weigh on crypto prices into November, said Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, but today's debate "could bring a small breather as Harris lead in the polls might erode somewhat as the tailwinds of the Democratic National Convention fade."
While investors remain very fearful of further downside, one historically reliable metric predicts a significant rally over the coming weeks and months, according to a market report from K33 Research on Tuesday.
30-day average funding rates for perpetual swaps fell to negative territory, a phenomenon that has occurred only six times since 2018, according to the report.
"In the past, negative monthly funding rates have roughly coincided with a market bottom," analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman at K33 wrote.
Based on previous instances when the metric flipped into negative, the average return over the subsequent 90-day period was 79% with the median 90-day return being 55%, the report said.
Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives gradually reached the highest since late July as the shorts piled in. This has combined with the persistent negative funding rates, leaving the market set up for potential short squeezes, the report said.
"Similar funding rate environments offer a very compelling case for aggressive exposure in BTC in the months ahead," the analyst said.