The Ethereum merge has been the hottest topic in the crypto town in the past month and everyone is asking how it will impact the ETH price. As it is coming nearer the market analysts are giving more and more mixed signals and commoners are confused. According to a weekly report from the data provider Kaiko, ether's steep price plunge on Friday brought a swift decline in open interest on derivatives – contracts that traders used to make leveraged bets on the cryptocurrency's future price. Many traders had their derivatives trades liquidated, or wiped out due to margin calls, according to Kaiko.
There's also been plenty of movement in funding rates on ether perpetual contracts, which are similar to futures contracts on commodities but without expiration dates. The funding rates recovered to near-neutral levels after dipping alongside the token's price. "When combined with the spike in open interest we observed this morning, it seems these new positions in ETH futures are biased long and investors are bullish at these price levels," Kaiko wrote.
Separately, ether's share of the weekly, combined trading volume of ether and bitcoin hit 57%, the highest since 2018. This trading activity exceeded Ethereum's previous peak of 55% during the May 2021 crypto sell-off. "The main driver of ETH trading activity in July has been increased optimism around the Merge and an improvement of global risk sentiment. However, last week's selloff across markets confirms that ETH remains a higher beta play," Kaiko wrote.
There's ample speculation that many Ethereum miners might try to keep supporting a proof-of-work, which the blockchain currently uses, similar to Bitcoin's. Ethereum Classic (ETC) and ETHPOW – based on a new, theoretical fork that might take place – have been touted as possible choices as the Merge approaches. According to Kaiko, Ethereum Classic has outperformed other forks, such as Bitcoin Cash, as well as ETH and BTC year to date.
While some Ethereum Merge concerns such as further delays, an unsuccessful transition, and proof-of-work fork competitors remain amongst traders, Arca Research Analyst Nick Hotz says that most of them are overblown. "Three Ethereum testnets (Ropsten, Sepolia, and Goerli) and nine 'shadow forks' have merged successfully," Hotz wrote. "Many of the hiccups seen in testing arose from the fact that these tests were not the real thing, whereas the actual Ethereum merge probably would have gone smoothly."
Once Ethereum reaches a specific total terminal difficulty (TTD), or amount of computing power dedicated to the network, the Merge will happen. Right now, the Merge is estimated to be around Sep. 15.
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