Bitcoin is the most popular and valuable cryptocurrency in the world, with a market capitalization of over US$1 trillion as of January 2024. However, Bitcoin price is also known for its high volatility, which can be attributed to various factors, such as speculation, regulation, innovation, and adoption.
The supply of Bitcoin is determined by its protocol, which sets a limit of 21 million coins that can ever be created. This limit is enforced by a process called mining, which involves solving complex mathematical problems to validate transactions and generate new bitcoins. The mining reward, which is the number of bitcoins given to miners for each block they produce, is halved every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years. This creates a decreasing supply schedule, which makes Bitcoin scarce and deflationary.
The next halving event is expected to occur in April 2024, when the mining reward will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins per block. This will reduce the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin from 1.8% to 0.9%, making it lower than the inflation target of most central banks. The halving event is widely anticipated by the Bitcoin community, as it has historically coincided with significant increases in Bitcoin's price in the months and years following each halving. This is because the halving reduces the supply growth of Bitcoin, while the demand for it remains constant or increases, creating a supply-demand imbalance that drives the price up.
The demand for Bitcoin is driven by various factors, such as its utility, innovation, adoption, and speculation. Bitcoin's utility refers to its ability to serve as a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a unit of account. Bitcoin's innovation refers to its technological features, such as its decentralization, security, transparency, and programmability. Bitcoin's adoption refers to its acceptance and usage by various individuals, businesses, and institutions around the world. Bitcoin's speculation refers to its attractiveness as an investment asset, especially in times of uncertainty and instability.
The demand for Bitcoin is influenced by various events and developments, such as regulatory changes, technological innovations, market trends, and social media. For example, the approval of the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024 was a positive catalyst for Bitcoin's demand, as it increased its accessibility and legitimacy for mainstream investors. On the other hand, the hacking of a major Bitcoin exchange or the banning of Bitcoin by a major country could be a negative catalyst for Bitcoin's demand, as it could undermine its security and legality.
The demand for Bitcoin is also affected by its network effects, which refer to the phenomenon that the value of a network increases as more users join it. The more users adopt and use Bitcoin, the more valuable it becomes, as it increases its liquidity, utility, and network security. This creates a positive feedback loop, where the higher value of Bitcoin attracts more users, which in turn increases its value further. This also creates a network externality, where the benefits of using Bitcoin depend on the number of other users using it.
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