Bitcoin's (BTC) price has reclaimed the $66,000 mark, sparking discussions among investors about the potential direction of the cryptocurrency market. With Bitcoin's recent surge, reaching above $65,000, market analysts are assessing whether this marks a bottom for the digital asset. A key metric, the MVRV ratio, suggests a buying opportunity, but concerns linger regarding the selling pressure as a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit. 

At press time, BTC was trading at $66,188, a 1.98% surge from the intra-day low. During the rally, BTC's market capitalization and 24-hour trading volume surged by 1.75% and 11.87% to $1,303,141,470,747 and $24,666,689,055

BTC/USD 24-hour price chart (source: CoinMarketCap)

BTC Supply in Profit

Recent on-chain data reveals that approximately 88.8% of the Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, indicating that a majority of investors are in a positive position with their holdings. However, this percentage has slightly decreased from its peak earlier in the year. The last time the supply in profit reached this level was on February 7th, 2024, when Bitcoin was priced at $44,000. Analysts are now monitoring whether Bitcoin can maintain its current momentum or if a period of consolidation is necessary to alleviate selling pressure.

Some market analysts believe that Bitcoin's potential surge to $75,000 from its current position could signal that the market has reached its bottom. Conversely, a price decline below $58,000 suggests that the bottom has not yet been established. Additionally, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio, a metric used to assess market value relative to realized value, presents a buying opportunity when it dips below its 90-day average. Historically, this has resulted in an average gain of 67%, indicating a favorable time to purchase Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's correlation with the Global Liquidity Index has historically been strong, but a break in this correlation has occurred in 2024. Analysts emphasize the importance of a liquidity boost before the US elections to sustain the ongoing bullish trend in Bitcoin. Despite a spike in transaction fees paid to Bitcoin miners, the creation of new Bitcoin addresses has declined, highlighting the necessity of increased liquidity to support further market growth.

Bitcoin Price Reclaims $66,000

Following a period of consolidation, the Bitcoin price has surged above $66,000, renewing optimism among investors. The breakout from the recent price range has generated bullish signals, with analysts eyeing a potential continuation towards $80,000. Technical indicators, such as the RSI displaying bullish divergence, support the upward momentum, with initial targets set at $75,000 and $80,000. However, sustaining above $66,000 for the remainder of the month will be crucial for confirming a bullish trajectory.

BTC/USD 24-hour price chart (source: TradingView)

Concurrently, post-halving, Bitcoin transaction fees have significantly decreased, providing relief to users. Medium-priority transactions now cost $8.48, while high-priority transactions cost $9.32, down from the initial spike post-halving. The hashprice index, a metric measuring miner revenue, has also dropped, indicating the expected impact of the halving on miner earnings. Despite expectations that the Runes protocol would mitigate revenue reduction, the floor prices for the Runes NFT collection have declined, raising questions about its effectiveness in maintaining fee revenue post-halving.